consideration of climate change phenomenon consequences on agricultural production (case study: shiraz county)

climate change phenomenon is an important environmental challenge of the world that has increased its speed with the increasing extension of greenhouse gases and remote relationship phenomena. changes in precipitation level, drought occurrence and in the level of surface and groundwater resources are the recognized consequences of climate change. in order to study climate change phenomenon consequences on agricultural production in shiraz county, three wells rings in shiraz plain were selected. mean statistics of water level in wells were regressed on the year during 1978-2008. using annual statistic of precipitation during 1958-2008 and standard precipitation index (spi), the probability of dry year incidence determined. effects of 5 pumping scenario in 3 states of nature was assessed using two-stage stochastic programming. results showed that water levels at the desired level of agricultural wells has significant decrease 0.4 percent (p=0.034). the long-run loss of income and farm income under the mild climate change and dry years was 4.5 and 6.4 percent. the short-term loss of income and agricultural income in the same scenarios were estimated from 54 and 30 percent to 74 and 85 percent, respectively. agricultural water use in the short and long term was estimated less than the status quo. reduction in water use will lead to reduction in yield and farm income in the performance area, however, will prevent the long-term damages to crop production levels and underground water resources. finally, taking support policies to increase farmer's incentives in appropriate use of water resources is recommended.